Abstract: Emergency managers need to assess, combine and process large volumes of information with varying degrees of
(un)certainty. To keep track of the uncertainties and to facilitate gaining an understanding of the situation, the
information is combined into scenarios: stories about the situation and its development. As the situation evolves,
typically more information becomes available and already acknowledged information is changed or revised.
Meanwhile, decision-makers need to keep track of the scenarios including an assessment whether the infor-mation constituting the scenario is still valid and relevant for their purposes. Standard techniques to support sce-nario updating usually involve complete scenario re-construction. This is far too time-consuming in emergency
management. Our approach uses a graph theoretical scenario formalisation to enable efficient scenario updating.
MCDA techniques are employed to decide whether information changes are sufficiently important to warrant
scenario updating. A brief analysis of the use-case demonstrates a large gain in efficiency.
Abstract: Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a technique for decision support which aims at providing transparent and coherent support for complex decision situations taking into account subjective preferences of the decision makers. However, MCDA does not foresee an analysis of multiple plausible future developments of a given situation. In contrast, scenario-based reasoning (SBR) is frequently used to assess future developments on the longer term. The ability to discuss multiple plausible future developments provides a rationale for strategic plans and actions. Nevertheless, SBR lacks an in-depth performance evaluation of the considered actions.
This paper explores the integration of both techniques that combines their respective strengths as well as their application in environmental crisis management. The proposed methodology is illustrated by an environmental incident example. Future work is to conduct validations on the basis of real-world scenarios by public Dutch and Danish chemical incident crisis management authorities.
Abstract: This demo presents an ICT system for collaborative situation assessment and strategic decision making that supports effective and efficient protection of the population and the environment against chemical hazards in industrial areas. Robust decision support taking into account multiple objectives entails the combination of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Scenario-Based Reasoning (SBR). The ad-hoc formed workflow of (human and artificial) experts generates scenarios capturing uncertainties. Combining MCDA and SBR allows for structuring complex problems and accounting for uncertainties by the selection of a decision alternative that performs (sufficiently) well for various aims under a variety of different possible situation developments (i.e., scenarios).